Glossary
One page per term, each with a definition, a formula where one exists, and the mistake the term is usually involved in.
All terms
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Asian handicap | a handicap market that removes the draw by refunding stakes when the adjusted score is level. |
| Double chance | a single bet covering two of the three possible results in a match. |
| Closing line value (CLV) | The difference between the odds you took and the odds at the moment the event started. |
| Expected value (EV) | The average result of a bet if it could be repeated indefinitely at the same price. |
| De-vigging | removing the bookmaker's margin from a set of odds to recover fair probabilities. |
| Vig (overround, juice) | The bookmaker's built-in margin, visible as implied probabilities summing above 100%. |
| Implied probability | The probability suggested by a price, before the bookmaker's margin is removed. |
| Kelly criterion | a staking formula that maximises the long-run growth rate of a bankroll. |
| Drawdown | The fall in a bankroll from a peak to the lowest point that follows it. |
| Risk of ruin | The probability that a bankroll hits zero, or a chosen floor, before it grows. |
| Brier score | The mean squared error of probability forecasts; lower is better. |
| Log loss | a scoring rule that penalises confident errors far more severely than Brier score does. |
| Calibration | The property that events forecast at a given probability occur at that frequency. |
| Yield | profit divided by total amount staked, expressed as a percentage. |
| Unit | a fixed stake size used so that results are comparable independent of bankroll. |
| Favourite–longshot bias | The tendency for longshots to be overpriced relative to their true chances, and favourites underpriced. |
| Expected goals (xG) | The number of goals a team would be expected to score from the chances it created. |
| Poisson distribution | a probability distribution for the number of independent events occurring at a constant average rate. |
Where these terms come from
Each definition is the one our engine uses, and every formula here is implemented in it. Longer treatments live in the guides.
Check any of this against our record
Every signal CONSENSUS publishes carries the bookmaker odds fixed before the event starts and the settled result afterwards — including the drawdowns and the losing runs. The running total is on the front page and every entry is in the log.