Double chance: Definition and Formula | CONSENSUS
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Double chance

Double chance — a single bet covering two of the three possible results in a match.

By CONSENSUS Research Published Updated

Double chance selections are 1X (home or draw), X2 (away or draw) and 12 (either team). Each covers two outcomes, so each wins more often than a straight result bet and pays correspondingly less.

P(1X) + P(X2) + P(12) = 2not 1 — every result is counted in exactly two of the three selections

Why it matters: the selections overlap pairwise, so the market is not exhaustive in the usual sense. Its de-vig normalisation target is 2, not 1.

Common mistake: normalising to 1 anyway. On live prices this produced an apparent edge of 41 percentage points in our own engine — a number large enough to be obviously a bug, but a smaller error of the same kind would have looked like a genuine find.

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Every signal CONSENSUS publishes carries the bookmaker odds fixed before the event starts and the settled result afterwards — including the drawdowns and the losing runs. The running total is on the front page and every entry is in the log.

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