Expected value (EV): Definition and Formula | CONSENSUS
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Expected value (EV)

Expected value (EV) — the average result of a bet if it could be repeated indefinitely at the same price.

By CONSENSUS Research Published Updated

Expected value combines a probability estimate with a price. Positive EV means the price is more generous than your probability implies.

EV = p × (decimal odds − 1) − (1 − p)Valid only for strictly binary markets.

Why it matters: EV is the only reason to place a bet that is not entertainment. Without it, a "good bet" means a bet that won.

Common mistake: applying the binary formula to markets that can push or half-settle — quarter handicaps, whole-number totals, draw-no-bet. Those need settlement-aware EV, which weights each settlement state separately.

Check any of this against our record

Every signal CONSENSUS publishes carries the bookmaker odds fixed before the event starts and the settled result afterwards — including the drawdowns and the losing runs. The running total is on the front page and every entry is in the log.

See the running result Open the full log