Risk of ruin
Risk of ruin — the probability that a bankroll hits zero, or a chosen floor, before it grows.
Risk of ruin rises with stake size and variance, and falls with edge. For most staking plans it is estimated by simulation rather than a closed-form formula.
Why it matters: a positive-EV strategy still goes bankrupt if it is staked too aggressively relative to its variance. Growth and survival are different objectives.
Common mistake: ignoring it because expected value is positive. Expected value describes the average path; ruin happens on individual paths.
Related
Check any of this against our record
Every signal CONSENSUS publishes carries the bookmaker odds fixed before the event starts and the settled result afterwards — including the drawdowns and the losing runs. The running total is on the front page and every entry is in the log.