Implied probability
Implied probability — the probability suggested by a price, before the bookmaker's margin is removed.
Implied probability is the reciprocal of decimal odds. It is what the price says, not what the market believes — the two differ by the margin.
implied probability = 1 / decimal oddsOdds of 2.50 imply 40%.Why it matters: it converts prices into a comparable scale, which is the first step in every calculation that follows.
Common mistake: treating implied probability as the market's true estimate. It always overstates, because it contains the vig.
Related
Check any of this against our record
Every signal CONSENSUS publishes carries the bookmaker odds fixed before the event starts and the settled result afterwards — including the drawdowns and the losing runs. The running total is on the front page and every entry is in the log.