De-vigging: Definition and Formula | CONSENSUS
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De-vigging

De-vigging — removing the bookmaker's margin from a set of odds to recover fair probabilities.

By CONSENSUS Research Published Updated

Implied probabilities in a real market sum to more than 100%. De-vigging redistributes that surplus so they sum to 1, producing the market's implied fair probability for each outcome.

multiplicative: p_fair(i) = p_implied(i) / Σ p_implied

Why it matters: comparing a model probability against raw implied probability manufactures a false edge equal to the bookmaker margin. De-vigging is a precondition for measuring anything.

Common mistake: de-vigging a group of outcomes that is not mutually exclusive. Double chance (1X, X2, 12) sums to 2, not 1 — normalising it to 1 halves every estimate and invents an edge.

Check any of this against our record

Every signal CONSENSUS publishes carries the bookmaker odds fixed before the event starts and the settled result afterwards — including the drawdowns and the losing runs. The running total is on the front page and every entry is in the log.

See the running result Open the full log