Poisson distribution
Poisson distribution — a probability distribution for the number of independent events occurring at a constant average rate.
In football modelling, each team's goals are treated as Poisson with rate λ, producing the probability of every possible number of goals.
P(k) = (λ^k × e^−λ) / k!Why it matters: two Poisson distributions produce a full matrix of scorelines, and every market can be derived from that one matrix — guaranteeing the prices are mutually consistent.
Common mistake: trusting it at low scores. Independent Poisson under-predicts 0–0 and 1–1, which is why the Dixon–Coles correction exists.
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Every signal CONSENSUS publishes carries the bookmaker odds fixed before the event starts and the settled result afterwards — including the drawdowns and the losing runs. The running total is on the front page and every entry is in the log.