Closing line value (CLV)
Closing line value (CLV) — the difference between the odds you took and the odds at the moment the event started.
Closing line value measures whether you bought a better price than the market settled on. Backing a selection at 2.20 that closes at 2.00 is positive CLV of roughly 10%.
CLV % = (odds taken / closing odds − 1) × 100Why it matters: the closing line contains all information that arrived before the event, which makes it the market's most accurate estimate. Beating it is evidence of skill long before profit becomes statistically meaningful, because profit is dominated by variance for hundreds of bets.
Common mistake: computing CLV on raw prices instead of de-vigged probabilities. Raw-price CLV flatters bettors who use high-margin bookmakers, since the closing price they compare against still contains the margin.
Related
Check any of this against our record
Every signal CONSENSUS publishes carries the bookmaker odds fixed before the event starts and the settled result afterwards — including the drawdowns and the losing runs. The running total is on the front page and every entry is in the log.