Kelly criterion
Kelly criterion — a staking formula that maximises the long-run growth rate of a bankroll.
Kelly sets stake as a fraction of bankroll proportional to edge divided by odds. It is provably optimal for growth — provided the probability estimate is exactly right.
f* = (b × p − q) / bb = decimal odds − 1, p = win probability, q = 1 − p.Why it matters: it converts an edge into a stake size on a principled basis instead of intuition.
Common mistake: staking full Kelly. Because the formula is linear in the estimated edge, overestimating your edge by 2× means staking 2× Kelly, which drives long-run growth negative. Practitioners use a quarter to a half.
Related
Check any of this against our record
Every signal CONSENSUS publishes carries the bookmaker odds fixed before the event starts and the settled result afterwards — including the drawdowns and the losing runs. The running total is on the front page and every entry is in the log.